The only conclusion you can draw from the real historical movement is that by and large, in day-to-day life, what Lenin called trade union consciousness dominates the working class. I would call it elementary class consciousness of the working class.
Factions are a sign of illness in a party.
And you cannot have a socialist revolution commandeered from the top, ordered around by some omniscient leader or group of leaders.
Marxism is always open, always critical, always self-critical.
You need a vanguard organization in order to overcome the dangerous potential brought about by the uneven development of class militancy and class consciousness.